四 结论

本文开篇即描述了中国的经济结构呈现出相对于其人均收入水平“过度工业化”和“低度城市化”的特征，以及作为一个巨大经济体过度依赖出口的现状。本文对二战后人均生活水平由2000美元上升至8000美元的经济体进行了比照分析。

中国历史发展路径及其引致的现行经济结构中，有一些方面阻碍了环保前提下生活水平的持续提升，同时也妨碍了收入和机会的公平化。其他方面则是对追求这些基本发展目标有益的。

之后我们描绘出了为适应新的发展模式政策所需做出的改变，同时讨论了政府已经付诸行动的措施。这个讨论最初由直接处理某种要素市场扭曲开始，之后扩展到宏观经济政策。我们的建议是：深化并加速金融改革，全盘考虑国际与国内现状；快速进行大规模的户口制度改革；保持当前以市场基础为能源定价的现状；优先基础设施投资而非工业产能投资；调整基本的长期财政策略以促成资源再分配。我们讨论得出的结果是乐观的，我们认为中国下一次转型的终极目标，即减少过度工业化、优化城市化及提升内需、减少出口之间是互补的。

在此我们给出了一个警告：关于路径依赖的很多方面都显示出这样一个情况，即中国领导人的选择和行为受到政治经济的诸多限制。当前的政策方向和目标是可喜的，但是我们认为缺乏一个界定清晰的竞争政策是现行政策框架的一个明显的缺陷。并且我们注意到，下一个周期性下降将会是对改革者们的巨大考验。

最后，中国领导人对当前状况明显还不满意，这让我们相信目前有前景的政策框架将会继续得以推行，并最终解决问题。追求上述互补目标的政策有很多值得称道的地方，然而在政策体系内仍有一场政治经济战斗需要打赢。减少过度工业化、优化城市化及提升内需、减少出口是中国成功转向新增长模式的必要条件。

棋盘已备，每个棋子正在运行之中。

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（曲玥 译）